NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has officially entered its fifth year on Monday, following four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased approximately 119% from its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022. That low was the index’s lowest finish since November 2020. On Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, reflecting a 14.1% rise for 2026 and approaching all-time highs. Over the week, the S&P 500 also gained 1.2%.
This ongoing rally is ranked as the 11th bull market since the 1950s within the historical series, and it is the seventh to reach at least four years in duration. The 119% increase falls short of the 184% average gain observed across the studied bull markets. Past cycles have experienced significantly larger total gains; for instance, the bull market from 2009 to 2020 surged 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 cycle increased by 582%. These two periods are among the most robust advances in the historical record.
Most previous bull markets that reached this stage have continued to deliver positive returns. Out of the last 10 bull markets, six persisted beyond four years. When examining markets that have achieved a fifth year, the average return in that year was 12%, with a median of 15%. The study also notes that during fifth years, an average maximum drawdown of about 14% has been observed. These figures describe historical trends and do not guarantee similar outcomes for the current cycle.
Earnings Growth Bolsters Market Momentum
Corporate earnings have demonstrated strength during this phase of the rally. FactSet reported that S&P 500 earnings for the third quarter were tracking 29.6% above the same period last year as of October 9. This marks the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate reached 29.2% by the end of the quarter on September 30. By October 9, 84% of the 19 index companies reporting had surpassed analysts’ average earnings estimates, with aggregate earnings exceeding expectations by 4.9%.
Market expectations for the remainder of the year remain high. Analysts project fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings will increase by 27.6% compared to the previous year. For the full year of 2026, earnings growth is estimated at 32.4%. Notably, semiconductor and hardware firms contribute about 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates. Additionally, these sectors account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 forecasts so far this year, based on Barclays research. These data underline the ongoing importance of technology-related companies in earnings revisions.
Interest Rates and Bond Yields Maintain Market Context
The rise in stock prices continues despite elevated U.S. interest rates and government bond yields. On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%. The Fed indicated that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated. Projections for September suggest median economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. The next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields have also stayed near multi-year highs, as the market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield was 5.60%. Despite these high yields, the S&P 500 closed that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.6%. The stock market’s continued ascent into its fifth year is supported by strong earnings growth and borrowing costs that remain above earlier bull-market levels.